Reading the terrible news about a company that is praised in the industry, I think we are approaching one of the worst moments in the industry. I am talking about Roblox, of course.
The feeling I have is the domino effect, which will spread especially in businesses that are supported by attention.
We have all played that game that makes us think “but how can this game be so successful?“
Well, often it is because the numbers are rigged and the players are not real people, but machines. New technologies only make this situation worse. I am afraid that many CEOs are playing the wrong game here. Faking the numbers, looking for the short term, that is the result.
It’s sad, but it’s good for the future of the industry in my opinion. We need some people out.
Yesterday a guy in a Slack channel sent the link to his post, shilling that he was showing the true potential of generative AI. The post is this one. Let’s break it down as a simple example of why all this hype is damaging the collective mind and how easy is to trick a brain using the right wording.
Preparation
Claim: “15min with just using GPT-4o and GPT-1o to create a complete game idea & concept“
This guy is looking for something quick and fast, not just getting ideas. He wants a complete concept. I consider myself a fast professional, I like quick and dirty things more than slow and perfect stuff. But 15 minutes is ultra-fast. Creating a complete game concept takes a huge portion of my mind, especially my conscience. How can a chipset have a conscience? Come on.
Prompt: “I want you be my my Lead Game Designer who knows all about mobile gaming, all genres, all mechanics, market trends etc I want you to come up with a compelling idea with USPs. I want you to pick the genre and sub-genre for me based on market data, some where that has high potential and is sorta blue ocean and high chance of success. The idea should be mobile friendly with simple mechanics and at the same time good depth so at first players can easily pass and progress but soon they have improve their skills/characters or whatever in order to progress further“
This man’s role to the machine is “his” lead game designer. This is a pretty common fetiche among game leaders. “My game designer”, “my programmer”. Some people believe that teammates are like pets or something.
The expectation is that this virtual pet knows all about mobile gaming too. That’s the dream, really! You take a selection process anywhere and you can feel that. Now, the good thing is that the machine is connected to the internet so it has access to lots of data. But, does that mean that the machine “knows”? Can the machine actually understand what it’s reading? I don’t think so.
The task given is not well defined, and too generic too. Lots of “sorta” and “whatever”. This happens also in real life, that’s one of the challenges of my profession. And don’t misinterpret me, I love it! It’s part of the beauty of my job to understand what people actually want.
Game concept and generated ideas
– Title: Eden Rising: Rebuild & Survive – Genre: Hybrid-Casual City Builder with Survival Elements – Setting: A post-apocalyptic world where players lead a group of survivors to rebuild society
Mechanics Overview – Resource Management: Start by collecting basic resources (wood, stone, food) through simple taps. As the game progresses, automate resource collection and manage supply chains. – Building and Upgrading: Construct homes, farms, workshops, and defenses. Upgrading buildings unlocks new functionalities and improves efficiency. – Survivor Management: Assign survivors to roles based on their skills. Manage their well-being by providing shelter, food, and security. – Dynamic Events: Random events like storms, raids, or resource booms that require quick decision-making and adaptation. – Exploration Missions: Send teams to explore ruins, forests, or other settlements. These missions can yield rare resources, new survivors, or story developments.
Why This Game Will Succeed – High Engagement Potential: The blend of simple mechanics with deep strategy caters to a broad audience, encouraging both casual and dedicated play. – Market Gap: The unique combination of genres fills a niche with little direct competition, positioning the game for standout success. – Scalability: Regular updates with new content, events, and features will keep the game fresh and retain players over time. – Social Integration: Community-building features enhance player retention through social engagement.
I don’t know where to start, honestly. If you read this and think that is good I suggest you to start studying game design for real, because you have no idea of what you’re talking about.
Game design is NOT this, at all. Game design is engaging with an audience and a team, understanding a market, and making micro-choices according to a set of problems to solve. As a game designer, you are invited to lead a process of discovery:
You may want to give a role to your players and see what happens
You can explore a mechanic or a set of mechanics
You may want to discover a new World that you and your team are building
You maybe want to set up a relationship with your players, thing that happens in live games
You may want to deliver a concrete experience
Miyamoto built his whole career on the concept of miniature garden
A lead game designer is a game designer who leads a team of game designers. So a lead game designer would tackle this issue very differently from the words soup you can see above.
The moodboard
Not happy with the shameful result, our friend added 4 unrelated images:
The first image is a generic and boring village in the middle of a north-European wood. You can see there is no central structure, nothing to drive the eye of the players. Just a generic composition.
The second image is a supposed sequence of upgrades of a building. In this case, it looks like a barrack that becomes a wooden house. The evolution makes the roof change orientation and each evolution is unrelated to the ones before.
The third image is a set of character concepts. Explorers from a utopic past or a dystopic future, I don’t know. Some of them have arrows but no bow, and some others just a bow. There are cool details, probably stolen from some Artstation page. Nothing special, nothing that tells a story about the game itself.
What is most important, these visuals are NOT hybrid-casual style like stated in first place by the machine.
Last but not least, The Last of Us. What does this mean in the game? Can you “conquer” this zone or explore it? And why? It’s just to remind us of TLOU, right?
Conclusions
I am tired of this shit, frankly. Look how many reactions and comments this guy had! Look at the position he covers. And you will understand why the state of games, especially mobile games, is desperate.
The ex-president of SONY Computer Entertainment Europe, Chris Deering declared on a podcast that “if money isn’t coming in from consumers on the last game, it’s going to be hard justifying spending money for the next.”
And I agree with that. But after watching the presentation of PS5 PRO yesterday, featuring games as old as The Last of Us 2 (2020, 4 years old) to show the power of a brand new thing I have serious doubts about this kind of leadership.
Yeah, ok, he WAS a president. Still, he has influence somehow.
A team’s ability to create hit games improves over time. The more a team works together, the higher the chances they will make something better. I have 2 questions:
If you hire and fire that easily, how can you hope to get better games over time?
If you have worse games how will you sell more expensive consoles?
There is something in common among Minecraft, Fortnite, Baldur’s Gate 3, and Helldivers 2. They all started from a strong niche.
Minecraft was a solo project of a developer willing to make something alone. Notch then found his niche thanks to YouTube.
Fortnite started like a PvE project in an internal game jam. Something small that found the first formula with the niche that liked both games like Minecraft and shooters.
Baldur’s Gate 3 is the 3rd episode of a game created by a company founded by 2 doctors, willing to make something for the niche of D&D role players.
Helldivers 2 is the second episode of Helldivers, a shooter with few mechanics very popular among a small niche.
Finding a strong niche is the first step to massive success. Always. That’s also why publishers are investing so heavily in remakes. Remakes are reworks on something that found a niche, they are more probably be interesting for a wider audience.
How do you know if you found a strong niche? There are many ways, in F2P you should measure the % of regulars, people that come play the game every single day. That’s the best indicator that the niche you found is truly interested in the game.
Reading and watching the latest releases in video games I arrive to a thought.
You need inspiration to make a good game, no matter the level of experience you have in this sense. If you want to earn the players’ trust, you have to deliver something novel. Not something new, but a product that works and has unexpected elements that surprise people.
People are great at understanding the personality of what we deliver. They understand when there is a derivative choice or something that comes from the truth of our craft. In some platforms, they can decide to close an eye.
Whales of f2p mobile games know that the game is designed to grab their cash, and they decide that it’s fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHtNcTA8t6A
People playing Helldivers 2 understand when a new upgrade on weapons is made to sell them a season pass.
“I sit here drunk now. I am a series of small victories and large defeats and I am as amazed as any other that I have gotten from there to here without committing murder or being murdered; without having ended up in the madhouse.
as I drink alone again tonight my soul despite all the past agony thanks all the gods who were not there for me then.”
― Charles Bukowski, The People Look Like Flowers at Last
The Concord game is out and it looks like a failure. People have worked for 8 years to something that will be shut down in the next few months. 8 years ago, the Overwatch fever brought many companies to invest in this new genre. We are seeing new games with Marvel and Star Wars IPs coming out these days.
The developers have accumulated experience and developed a compromise towards their colleagues over the past 8 years. They made something beautiful. The game is great, but its personality is not in line with the market right now. You can still see beauty, experience, and design.
Can we consider that their job has gone down the drain? It depends on how you see your work. If you are in the “American dream” of making lots of money and success in a few time, maybe yes. Maybe you just lost your time with a failure.
They have worked for 8 years together with other experts. They are more savvy now. Next projects will be benefit from all this. Maybe someone will go and build something different, something new.
Everyone is talking about the monkey, a breath of fresh air during those challenging times. I am watching the game intro over and over, it is probably one of the best I have ever seen.
Character: he’s brave, he’s not humble, he is imperfect. He is relatable with Goku also for non-Asian audiences. That cloud flight scene is pure genius.
Combat: it starts from the best thing of the game, fighting bosses. You cannot lose here, and you have everything unlocked it’s on you to discover.
System: it shows you a possible evolution of your character
Promise: the theme is well set at the end of the prologue. It’s about rising again.
But wait, why did the semi-god fall off? It’s not clear and I am not the only one that wants to know why…
Regarding the development, the team had experience in live service games and they decided to steer off completely learning Unreal Engine from scratch.
Great things happen when you have motivation and true experience but in lateral sectors! Black Myth Wukong is another proof of this.
As a freelancer I work with many realities, but never AAA games. I work mostly with indies and free-to-play companies. I had some blockchain gigs, too. They paid very well even if the business was confusing, to say the least.
A significant difference between free-to-play companies and indies is their definition of success.
F2P CEOs are looking to solve a formula: CAC < LTV. Customer Acquisition Cost less than LifeTime Value. Indie founders, instead, want to be able to make another game. Everyone would like to become rich of course.
On one side we have people thinking of something scalable, on the other teams who want to continue making games. They both can learn a lot from each other.
The importance of thinking in a business
The importance of having the right KPIs to measure results
One thing games and stories have in common is that, for some weird reason we love when they talk about work.
We love stories of lawyers and we love power-wash simulators. A friend of mine bought a freakin’ airplane cabin for his garden and teaches maneuvers to newbies every night on Il-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad.
We also love games with less fidelity, still on work-related stuff. Nintendogs had a tremendous success, for instance. Some DS owner just got that game and that’s it.
One of the best moments of What Remains of Edith Finch (the most memorable, to me) happens while you are cutting and cleaning fish.
These games can tell stories that we relate to deeply, and give us a different sort of escapism.
When we are kids, many of us play actual professions. I was an astronomer, I bought zines and everything: a true expert! I spent my afternoons with maps, numbers, and theories I didn’t understand.
When a game is bad or “grindy” for us we often say “I feel like I am working”, but the working fantasy has a huge narrative potential.
Games and novels can turn mundane experiences into ones that pull on our psychology of reward faster than the real world. There are sparkles, rewards, sounds, and bouncing numbers.
The working metaphor can be easily related to reality, we can feel productive in terms of that particular fantasy. A well-thought work fantasy can also intrinsically motivate players who like to feel productive and valued.
Squad Busters is a great toy, for me. I noticed this is a game led by game designers. I guess that they want to prove the long tail of this concept. And I hope they will because they are making something they like.
I bet that this game has passed the first very important test of any successful game. This is NOT the D1 retention that can be calculated in at least 4 different ways to trick stakeholders.
I call this test “voluntary play”: if the team is playing the game for pure pleasure, you have a promising game.
Only 5% of games pass this test. If more people would make this test we would have fewer meaningless games in the stores. We prefer to keep working on something uninteresting because “we should check CPI”, or “Let’s see D3“.
My question is: why should the people play that crap if you won’t?
Squad Busters has a strong hook, for sure. If its tail is high enough, building the mid-experience on vertical progress should be easier than following the old playbook. And if it doesn’t work, it’s still a game related to their brand. They could also try to expand to more platforms.
I would play this on Steam, for example.
And for mobile, I would add a new control system for people like me who prefer to swipe. A system based on giving directions to the squad by swiping on the screen. With points of interest for them to act with elements in the range.
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